Predicting the NBA MVP

In the image above we have the Vegas odds for NBA MVP as of November 5th, 2024. We're going to see if we can make a low-effort model that approximates this list, with minor exceptions.

Note: These are betting odds so they take into account peoples' irrational behaviours, like voting Anthony Edwards for MVP. Statistically, based on age and overall performance I think he's an outlier on this list.

Similarly, Jokic has won 3 of the last 4 and his team is likely to underperform this year. If Denver's Win Percentage top 4 in the conference at the end of the year then the model should rate the Joker more highly, but I don't expect Ant or Jokic to top our charts.