Predicting the NBA MVP

In the image above we have the Vegas odds for NBA MVP as of November 5th, 2024. We're going to see if we can make a low-effort model that approximates this list, with minor exceptions.

Note: These are betting odds so they take into account peoples' irrational behaviours, like voting Anthony Edwards for MVP. Statistically, based on age and overall performance, he'd be an outlier MVP.

Similarly, Denver had a poorly rated offseason (so Jokic's team seems likely to underperform), and he has also won 3 of the last 4 MVPs (contributing to voter fatigue). This model takes sentiment into account, so barring the Nuggets finishing Top 4, I don't expect Ant or Jokic to top our charts right now.